Thank you for helping to incubate my hypothesis with your interpretations. Apparently, some contestants have become emotional. If so, set those emotions aside and take a hard look at the mathematics to avoid future consequences. Suggestion: Don’t blame your chatbots, they are not the problem. Blame yourself if you were not aware of the, Hypothesis Of Undefeatable Odds. Another interpretation of this hypothesis is to consider that no rules were broken. If there is an unwritten rule that qualifying round contestants are permitted entry to the final round, then next year, contestants had better prepare to team with a qualifying round contestant in the final round or avoid lowering their winning probability.
Now, if the Chatbots Organization members don’t object, I would like to continue discussion of my Hypothesis Of Undefeatable Odds. At this point in my hypothesis, I am considering Probability. In this Experiment, the events are non-mutually exclusive. The addition of A (Alice hypothetically speaking) causes M (Mitsuku hypothetically speaking) to be counted twice. So let’s plug in the contest data to the Additional Rule: When two events, A and M, are non-mutually exclusive, the probability that A or M will occur is: P(A or M) = P(A) + P(M) - P(A and M).
Probability
1. Qualifying Round data:
Mitsuku
Rose
Uberbot
Midge
Tutor
Colombina
Arckon
Johnny & co
Aidan
Alt Inc
Talkme
Izar
Simplex
Alice
Momo
P.A.M.
2. Final Round data:
Calculate Probability for final round without Alice in the final round:
P(Mitsuku) = 1/4 = .25
P(Rose) = 1/4 = .25
P(Uberbot) = 1/4 = .25
P(Midge) = 1/4 = .25
Calculate Probability with Alice in the final round:
P(Alice) + P(Mitsuku) = 2/5 = .40
P(Rose) = 1/5 = .20
P(Uberbot) = 1/5 = .20
P(Midge) = 1/5 = .20
Disqualify Alice and Mitsuku in the final round (hypothetically):
P(Rose) = 1/6 = 0.166666667
P(Uberbot) = 1/6 = 0.166666667
P(Midge) = 1/6 = 0.166666667
P(Arckon) = 1/6 = 0.166666667
P(Columbina) = 1/6 = 0.166666667
P(Tutor) = 1/6 = 0.166666667
So, the entry of A (Alice) to the final round doubles the winning probability of M (Mitsuku). And, the winning probabilities of Rose, Uberbot and Midge are each lowered by over 5%. In theory, disqualifying A (Alice) and M (Mitsuku) adds three contestants to the final round. This may suggest Rose, Uberbot and Midge all lost a competitive edge. In short, if there is an unwritten rule: Qualifying round contestants are allowed in the final round, then the other teams had better figure that out, to be competitive.