This is probably another reason I was thinking 2029….

also from [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2029 ]

A computer passes the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a very stupid human). This first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.

‘strong AI’ == stupidest person?!!  So we can still be very proud to be humans in 2029, but not much long after.

also, first AI built based on the human mind…. I’m anxious to find out if he is correct.

I don’t know why but I have a feeling something interesting will pop up here in less than 10 years.

I think it may be based on the human mind but as soon as engineers (possibly) understand the brain’s workings they’re gonna go nuts and design it better, faster, and smaller.  Scientists may want to fully understand what’s going on in there but the tech industry will want to get things out the door if they are better than last year’s—and whatever works will do.

Toby Graves - Jan 27, 2012:

.... but the tech industry will want to get things out the door if they are better than last year’s—and whatever works will do.

Yes, and with company’s like Microsoft wanting the monopoly, that is all that will matter… and for the first 20 years of brain-emulation based AI, there will be nothing but blue-screens-of-death and CONTROL-ALT-DEL.

Microsoft ‘just get it out the door’-AI….

With this kind of AI, we don’t have to worry about jobs.. there will be more jobs with it than would be without it…. if anything, just to constantly reboot.

of course, these days Microsoft only wants it. apple and google have it.

Jan Bogaerts - Jan 27, 2012:

of course, these days Microsoft only wants it. apple and google have it.

<Like>

Which vendor would you choose?

IBM - Brian like chip

INTEL - Brain computer interface
http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/violin/violin1112/violin111200267/11594199-brain-symbol-on-computer-chip—technology-concept.jpg

Honda - Brain/Asimo interface

Apple - IThink

Which vendor would I choose, for what?  Quality of product?  Or the one making the most contribution to the field of AI?

I’m extremely impressed with Honda’s Asimov project, and I’m following it closely.  I hope one day to be able to afford one - and do some custom programming.  Perhaps upload my language engine into its brain.

IBM - love what they are doing in the exploration of von Neumann computing (not that that is a strike again Mr Neumann, the guy is a hero right up there with Turing).

The Asimov link you posted gives me a 404 error.

Just a taste of what is to come.

BRAIN MACHINE INTERFACE (BMI) by Honda
http://world.honda.com/news/2009/c090331Brain-Machine-Interface-Technology/

Video demo:
http://youtu.be/fbu2nd_8yH8

Amazing where this technology is going. I think the refrigerator application just makes good sense, but I think that it will take a little longer then you think Im thinking more like 2025

At the start of each year, there is a Consumer Electronics Show in the US.

Merlin - Jan 11, 2012:

The consumer electronics show (CES) has just begun. Back in October I made the Prediction:

Within the next 5 years all “smart phones” will have voice recognition/intelligent agents built in. I should probably add that you will soon see high end voice enabled TVs, Cars, and appliances.

http://www.chatbots.org/ai_zone/viewthread/673/

I like to take this time to look back at my predictions and make some new ones.

Iteresting Trends

Everyone is talking about the Internet of Things

‘Internet of Things’ in Reach
Companies Rush Into Devices Like Smart Door Locks, Appliances, but Limitations Exist

LG Electronics (LG) will showcase its next generation of smart innovations and technologies that take advantage of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to allow customers to communicate, control, monitor and share content with LG home appliances via the popular mobile messenger, LINE, and LG’s HomeChatTM service.

Qualcomm is trying to rally hardware makers around a technology called AllJoyn to help devices discover each other and collaborate.

Our own Jan Bogarts has joined a company to Help shape the IOT.

Prediction: In the future, we won’t just be talking about how “Things” can be accessed and controlled via the Internet. We will also be discussing how these “Things” can contorl each other.

I have coined this the “Robotic Internet Of Things” (RIOT) TM.

Wearible Tech
Of course the internet of things wouldn’t be complete if you couldn’t strap things to your arm, car, and dog.

BMW demonstrated a way of controlling its new i3 electric car with Samsung’s Galaxy Gear smartwatch, using Bluetooth wireless technology.

By 2018, cars will be self-aware
Soon, your car could be talking to businesses and letting them know where you are

Google’s announcement Monday of an Open Automotive Alliance, aimed at bringing Android OS to the telematics systems of several vehicle manufacturers. Google announced plans to bring Android to cars by the end of this year.

Audi, General Motors (GM), Honda, Hyundai and chip maker Nvidia were all part of the launch of the Open Automotive Alliance.

http://blogs.computerworld.com/ios/23364/ces-2014-apple-google-wanna-pimp-your-ride

Smarter Intelligenct Assistants

Nuance Communications has unveiled new Dragon Mobile Assistant for smart watches. It also announced the next-generation Dragon Assistant for devices based on Intel RealSense technology.

Prediction: PC’s of the future will be expected to come with an “Intelligent Assitant”
Dragon Assistant comes closest to an always-on digital assistant for the PC—with the app running, you can launch a variety of actions just by saying “Hello Dragon.” Iphones of course have Siri built in, and you can access much of the same functionality via Google Now or even Slynet-AI (updated list of devices). But, by 2018, you can expect most PC’s and tablets, to also come with an embedded assistant built in. Most of this tech is now “cloud” based. But you can also expect it to be embedded in a range of devices without needing an Internet connection.

Intel has delivered its keynote at CES 2014, and the presentation focused almost entirely on wearable and perceptual computing.

Our own Jan Bogarts has joined a company to Help shape the IOT.
Prediction: In the future, we won’t just be talking about how “Things” can be accessed and controlled via the Internet. We will also be discussing how these “Things” can contorl each other.

Yep, that’s what we are currently working on. You can be pretty certain that this is going to be a reality next year.  In fact, that’s what we consider to be ‘the internet of things’. It’s not so much about hooking things up to the internet, it’s about hooking them up to each other so they can control each other autonomously.

For me, another very important trend is going to be 3d printing. I’ve been dreaming about one of those for some time now. The price is starting to get there. Now the time…

I agree with you on the 3d printing front. I am surprised I left it out. :(

ces 3d printing companies
http://ces14.mapyourshow.com/5_0/exhibitor_results.cfm?type=pavilion&pavilion=3D+Printing