Instead, you’d have whining, greedy copyright holders demanding ridiculous amounts of money. I’m thinking of Mickey Mouse and the heirs to the Disney empire, but there are many examples to choose from.

also true.

What I think will be going away, is the ‘human’ playing the part.

The visual role of a human will probably go away first. But, we may see many more people able to become actors because they can “emote”, or have a good/interesting voice rather than how they look on screen. Maybe a whole new industry of virtual character actors ala what Mel Blanc did in cartoons.

Merlin - Jan 4, 2011:

The visual role of a human will probably go away first. But, we may see many more people able to become actors because they can “emote”, or have a good/interesting voice rather than how they look on screen. Maybe a whole new industry of virtual character actors ala what Mel Blanc did in cartoons.

I totally agree! But still, visually, everything can be copied.

@Roger: I personally believe that all media will integrate and we’ll end up with one integrated media environment. TV, radio will disappear in the coming ten years and in this century even books will disappear because the skill to read to books with evolve into a hobby instead of something everybody learns at ‘school’ (where the concept of school will change as well). The internet is the largest invention mankind ever did since the invention of early writing.

About the temporary disappearance of the edit button: please check this thread:
http://www.chatbots.org/ai_zone/viewannounce/324_20/

Erwin Van Lun - Jan 4, 2011:

.....the skill to read to books with evolve into a hobby instead of something everybody learns at ‘school’

Assuming you meant to write, “the skill to read books will evolve into a hobby instead of something everybody learns in ‘school’”

You didn’t need the second ‘to’ in “to read to books”, ‘with’ changed to ‘will’, ‘at’ changed to ‘in’.

Anyway, you’re saying nobody is going to learn to read in the future? 

@Erwin, I think we will have to agree to disagree.  I think TV, radio and books will be with us for decades yet.  I tell you what, if in ten years those things disappear I will eat my hat.  lol

@Roger: I absolutely believe they will disappear. We’ll still have big screens in our living rooms, what used to be a ‘TV’, we can still listen to live audio shows, used to be a component of radio air time, but it will all merge and everything will be available on everything.

@Vic: charactesrs, as we know them from text books, are ‘coding’ of verbal language. As you know, it looses as lot of its original intention, and therefore, we use paragraphs, styling, interpunction, repeating, clarification, examples etc.

The original reason why coded language has been important is because of its essense: to transfer knowledge to new generations. It’s extremely important to learn from others. What they have done in the past. What they have learned. We grouped knowledge into classes. Maths, Geography, History and all kinds of classes for occupation.

In the future however, virtual worlds will be far more effective in transferring knowledge. The original reason to learn coded language, i.e. to read and write, will disappear. Therefore, in 2050, according to my vision, we’ll have a serious movement in society which is willing to stop reading and writing classes for children and leave it to historicans and hobbyist instead.

Yeah, and we will have a “paperless” society by 1990 or 2000 like everyone thought, computer screens and hard drives would do away with all paper - didn’t happen.

However, you bring an interesting point, and I do agree that these virtual worlds will be extremely beneficial.  But I highly doubt that the written word will be obsolete.  Written text is simple and effective.

Spoken language can also be considered to be “coded language”.  A “virtual world” needs more than just visual representations, there must be either spoken or written language to explain things, complex concepts can’t be encoded only in moving computer graphics.

When I’m driving down the highway in 2050 (hay, maybe I’ll still be around!),  what will I see rather than a simple painted signs along the side of the road indicating, for example, a restaurant is 2 km ahead?

Also, if I want to leave you a message… will I leave a voice mail, text email, or a “virtual world” message?  That virtual world message needs more than pictures to convey complex ideas, thus either spoken or written language must come into play.  I don’t know about you, but I would rather look through my inbox quickly to find a text message rather than having to re-listen to a bunch of voice mails, or go through a ‘virtual world’.

Virtual reality, or virtual worlds, yes, will have great benefits, but written and spoken languages will be necessary.

you won’t be driving the highway in 2050. By that year, it will no longer be necessary to have a driving certificate. You can simply step in every car in the world, and say what your destination is. Whether you’re 8 or 80, this ‘car’ will bring you there immediately. And you don’t have to worry about payment. It’s all taken care of.

It’s a reason why I refer to this era as ‘pamper planet’.

That’s my point, you still need spoken language.  Spoken and written are pretty much both “coded” language.  If I need to recall a particular message I received, or look some piece of information up in a book (yes, even a virtual book), or find out the name of a city on a map, I think direct text is easier than having to listen to each spoken name, or browse a virtual world.

If you say you don’t need to drive, just say what your destination is, then what is a mute supposed to do?  He or she does not have voice.

Hey Vic, We dont’t agree this time:

If I need to recall a particular message I received

just ask (“hey, what did Erwin write on the blog years ago?”)

look some piece of information up in a book (yes, even a virtual book)

what kind of information? data retrieval? lookup stuff? just ask (already possible nowadays). Wanna hear the story? It will be read aloud, or for your ears only. Hey, we’re talking about 2050, not about 2015 here.

or find out the name of a city on a map, I think direct text is easier than having to listen to each spoken name, or browse a virtual world.

wave your hand in front of you and you’ll hold a virtual globe, it will be turned toward the city you were mentioning. As soon as your eyes look interesting, or wondering, is zooms in or out, dependent on your facial expressions, gestures, emotions.

If you say you don’t need to drive, just say what your destination is, then what is a mute supposed to do?  He or she does not have voice.

visual ques/mind reading etc, but more interestingly: how does the mute know where to go to? a daily trip to city center or a weekly visit to his mom does not require any kind of interaction. That’s all automated based on previous behaviour.

 

There is no way the world is going to put that kind of effort and COST just for the sole purpose of trying to remove written language!!

    I think if things turn out the way you suggest, we will be like the dumb humans living in the movie “Time machine”.

Erwin Van Lun - Jan 5, 2011:

If you say you don’t need to drive, just say what your destination is, then what is a mute supposed to do?  He or she does not have voice.

visual ques/mind reading etc, but more interestingly: how does the mute know where to go to? a daily trip to city center or a weekly visit to his mom does not require any kind of interaction. That’s all automated based on previous behaviour.

Mind reading. .well, now you are introducing all kinds of other technology in addition to “virtual worlds” !!

the future is not only about ‘virtual worlds’ . Bed time over here. Great conversation!

Ok, but my points were based on your assumption that virtual worlds would kill the written word.

The world spins around MONEY . .take for example “text messaging” .. for some reason teenager think that “texting” is more high tech than voice messaging, which is of course stupid.  But.. it is making money. 

another thing is,  if we need more than virtual worlds,  mind reading, strong AI, etc, then yes, we don’t need written language, we don’t even need spoken language, if we have strong AI, the robots run everything for us, and we don’t need to “just ask” for information, we won’t need information, what would we do with it if we don’t have to work, or think at all anymore!

I’m on Erwin’s side for this one. I think that, if we don’t radically change our school system, more and more kids will opt to drop out (something that appears to be already happening). In the long run, this can have a cascading effect. And the ‘written language’ could share the same faith as the ‘roman language’ (not that I mind getting rid of that last one).

About this convergence of media: Hasn’t this already happened behind the scenes? What I mean is this: When I turn on the TV in the morning, national TV transmits the webcam images of their radio stations, which I can also follow on internet. Most of the commercial tv networks over here, have radio stations. If I buy a newspaper, I usually get a CD, book or beer with it. magazines start to work with ‘tv producers’,.... All of it driven by the need to ‘grow’ to stay alive.